Let's just say that the Europeans are so scared of the possibility of Trump coming back to power that they're going to increase their military spending and increase their manufacturing.

Could they, within a year, replace what America does?

ANNE APPLEBAUM: So, yes.

To be clear, the Europeans have spent more on Ukraine to date than we have.

The number is 90 billion euros so far, plus they've just agreed another 50 billion euros.

That's by comparison to our bill right now, which is this $60 billion bill that's sitting in the House.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: And 90 billion euros today is roughly -- sorry I don't have my currency calculator, about $100 billion.

ANNE APPLEBAUM: It's about -- yes, euro and dollar are not that far apart.

So, they are they're spending more than we are All European countries are upping their defense budget.

I think Poland is now at something like 4 percent of GDP.

All the frontline states are at 2 percent, if not 3 percent.

The problem is there is a gap in time.

So, Europe will be producing more and they will be at a higher level production by the end of this year, but we have to make sure that Ukraine survives between now and the end of the year and that's what the U.S. -- only the U.S. funding could do.

And so when you hear panic and anxiety in Europe, it's about that.

It's about the this missing ammunition for this year And also, of course It's about the fact that the Europeans had not -- it had not occurred to anybody that the U.S. president could have a policy and he would not be able to carry out that policy because a minority would block him.

And that's created an enormous amount of anxiety.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I want to read you all a quote, this is said two years ago at the outset of the war.

They, meaning the Ukrainians, don't have the necessary equipment that they need to face down a foe like Russia.

They're outgunned and outmanned and outmaneuvered, and so they've been asking us for quite some time to enhance our support of them.

There's obviously a direct interest that the American people have in doing so.

That is, as you see Mike Johnson, who was then a very obscure backbench congressman now is the speaker of the House.

Obviously, Lara, something has changed in Mike Johnson's belief system, because he's clearly the linchpin here.

If he made a different set of decisions over the past few weeks, the spigot would be open to a greater degree.

Talk about that a little bit, I want all of you to jump in, on what's happening in Congress, but also sort of, if you can add to what Anne is talking about, how important right now would be an open spigot for Ukraine.

LARA SELIGMAN: Really important.

And I think what Anne is saying about the European defense industry getting to that point by the end of the year is really crucial, because 2024 is going to be the deciding year for Ukraine.

You can see they're on the back foot right now.

If Russia gains more momentum, they can push through.

And you heard Vladimir Putin say the other day they want to move to Odessa.

They want Kyiv.

So, unless the U.S. acts now and continues to fill that gap and gives them more ammunition, I do really worry about the future of Ukraine.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Before we come back to the Republicans, I just want to jump up something you said.

David, could the Russians go to Odessa and Kyiv?

DAVID IGNATIUS: So they could go to Odessa.

I keep asking people whether a Russian repeat of their initial battle plan is realistic as possible.

And the answer is highly unlikely.

They could come south from Belarus, as they did before.

But the Ukrainians have got a lot of electronic warfare capability, lots of ways to stop the Russians.

The thing that worries me the most right now is morale.

I mean, after weapons, I mean, the problem of Avdviika, they were running out of ammunition.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Morale and weapons are connected.

DAVID IGNATIUS: So, they kind of go together.

So, an army that doesn't have enough air defense to protect its cities, that doesn't have enough ammo to fight a fair fight with its adversary, is going to have a morale hit.

And if that accelerates, then you can imagine sort of a series of rolling defeats.

It is still -- it's stunning that House Republicans looking at what we're describing this war after two years are just kind of sitting on their docks, not taking action.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Can you explain it?

DAVID IGNATIUS: So, you know, I think there is a kind of retrenchment.

America First really means America first to these folks.

Out in the country, there are obviously a lot of people who were sick of the wars that they think, you know, the elites have pushed on them and they see this -- JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But there's high level of support for Ukraine in the polls still.

DAVID IGNATIUS: Well, you know, President Biden needs to find a way to tap that and motivate it, because time is running out on this.

LARA SELIGMAN: And he's tried to as well.

He's tried to tie Ukraine funding to the U.S. defense industry and said, however many dollars we're spending on Ukraine is actually coming back in battleground states like Pennsylvania.

But it hasn't really worked, which is very interesting to me.

It hasn't stuck.

ANNE APPLEBAUM: So, respectfully, I slightly disagree.

I don't think what we're seeing is a wave of isolationism or people saying, you know, we just want to come home and we don't care about democracy.

I think we're seeing something much more specific than that.

So, Donald Trump, for his own reasons, doesn't want money going to Ukraine.

And that's been clear since last summer.

It wasn't entirely clear to me all along.

I thought maybe this stuff about the border, we need to do the border, was real.

And then it became clear that that wasn't real.

So, for months now, he's been putting huge pressure on Republicans not to give money to Ukraine.

And I think I have reason to think that it's because he wants Ukraine to be weak so that when he wins, you know, he thinks he's going to win in January, that he will dictate the terms of peace in a way that suits him personally and suits what he imagines to be good for the American economy.

So, I actually think it's about that and it's pretty sinister.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right.

I want to play for you.

I want you to listen to President Biden for a second, making it plea for more aid.

JOE BIDEN, U.S. President: The House of Representatives must pass the bipartisan national security bill.

Brave Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are dying.

Russia has taken Ukraine territory for the first time in many months.

But here in America, the speaker gave the House a two-week vacation.

They have to come back and get this done.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: So, something that you were talking about, it's not getting through.

Why is this not getting through?

Why is Joe Biden having such a hard time convincing American people of something that polls show that they actually theoretically want?

LARA SELIGMAN: Well, I think it's important to remember that we are in an election year and we're in an election year not just in the U.S. but many countries, I think there's more there's more than 80 countries around the globe are having elections this year.

And I think that in elections people tend to focus on domestic politics instead of foreign policy.

So, I think that's important.

But I think it also is important to say that if this aid bill, the $95 billion aid package, goes to the floor, lawmakers do have the votes to pass it.

It's purely because Mike Johnson refuses to put it on the floor that it's not going anywhere.

So, I think it does come down to the speaker and his priorities.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It is kind of a rebuke of the president in a way that an ineffective, inexperienced speaker with a tiny majority has bollocksed up the world's sole remaining superpower's ability to execute a foreign policy.

DAVID IGNATIUS: There are things that he could do even without the passage of this, to get Ukraine across what I described this week as the valley of death, this period of low morale, Russian momentum.

One thing that Biden could do is to send long-range missiles, they're known as ATACM 300s, which would have the ability to hit targets like the Kerch Strait Bridge that goes to Crimea.

When Zelenskyy came to Munich and met with the bipartisan congressional delegation, he took out a map.

And he laid the map down, and the map showed exactly where these ATACMs could hit, all the targets they could hit.

And he basically was appealing to this group, you know, this is what we need now.

So, that's within Biden's power.

It appears the White House isn't going to do that, but it's something that would actually shift the balance, I think, in terms of the morale factor.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Let me ask in the couple of minutes that we have left.

I want to ask all of you, not to be catastrophist necessarily, but what does defeat look like?

What would defeat look like?

And what does victory from an American national security perspective look like, Anne?

ANNE APPLEBAUM: So, defeat means the elimination of the U.S. as a security guarantor for Europe.

It means that the U.S. is no longer seen as a reliable ally by anybody, by Europe, by Taiwan, by South Korea.

It means that not just the Russians, but the Iranians are emboldened, the Chinese are emboldened, all of the North Koreans are emboldened, which has already happened.

It means a real transformation in how people view the U.S. and the world, and that would have enormous security as well as economic implications.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: David, what is victory?

DAVID IGNATIUS: So, victory for Ukraine, I define it today, assuming they get the weapons from the U.S. Let's make the positive assumption.

Victory this year will be holding the line.

They are not going to push the Russians out of the four provinces that they've occupied, annexed this year by anybody's estimation, maybe next year.

If they can hold on this year, hold what they have, push back a little bit, hold their ground steady up, maybe 2025 is the year when they'd be.

So, for now, to me, victory is Ukraine protecting itself, hunkering down, avoiding terrible loss of civilians, protecting its cities.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Lara, I'm going to have to have you back because you're going to have to tell me another time what victory looks like.

Maybe you just off the hook, but, unfortunately, we have to leave it there for now.

It's been a great conversation, and I want to thank our panelists for joining us and sharing their reporting.